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e-Commerce Bounces Back Strongly in Third Quarter
Are Americans taking to heart the talk of politicians and some private-sector observers that the long-punishing economic and financial crisis that has put businesses into scrapbooks and people on the street is on the wane?
Or are people getting off their hurting feet and onto their thrifty notebook to find deals, and to spend online more than ever?
You can safely bet on all of that ' though economies are fickle and the uptick may not last long.
The Census Bureau said recently that preliminary estimated U.S. retail e-commerce sales shot up 4% from the second quarter, tallying $41.5 billion, with the data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.
That is the largest estimated e- commerce spending figure for retailing since the Bureau began keeping e-commerce spending records in 1999.
Taking the Proportional View
As a percent of all spending, e-commerce also hit a record-high estimated volume in the third quarter ' 4.2% (although readers should keep in mind that while the retailing sector isn't where most e-commerce occurs, it is the most-watched and most regularly reported-on sector and, thus, most likely the best indicator of general consumer-oriented activity than in the business-to-business world ' the main place e-commerce occurs).
And while the change in estimated third-quarter e-tailing in 2010 from 2009 (13.6%) is slightly lower than the Census Bureau's estimates for 2010's increases in first- and second-quarter sales over the same quarters in 2009, last year's quarterly e-spending trumped 2009's ' which ranged from a loss of 6.6% (-6.6%) to a gain of 1.6%.
Fourth-Quarters Comparison
The year-to-year fourth-quarter numbers hurled to 14.6% from -7.7% (that low figure in December 2008 represented the biggest decline in quarter-to-quarter e-commerce activity in history).
Total preliminary estimated third quarter retailing came in at $978.7 billion, also adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes ' which makes the third-quarter preliminary estimated adjusted spending figure the closest to $1 trillion since spending plummeted to $921.7 billion in the third quarter of 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis.
Estimated overall spending first hit $1 trillion in the third quarter of 2007, when the tally came to $1.01 trillion. More-than-a-trillion spending continued until the 2008 third-quarter drop.
Total retail sales increased 6% ('0.5%) from the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of last year.
The Numbers without Adjustments
On a not-adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2010 totaled $38.8 billion, an increase of 3.9% ('1.4%) from the second quarter of 2010.
The third quarter 2010 e-commerce estimate increased 14.1% ('2.5%) from the third quarter of 2009, while total retail sales increased 5.8% ('0.5%) in the same period.
e-Commerce sales in the third quarter of 2010 accounted for 4% of total sales.
The Census Bureau will release its fourth-quarter 2010 estimate of e-commerce and total retail sales on Feb. 17.
How Census Bureau Defines e-Commerce
The Census Bureau classifies e-commerce sales as any involving goods and services for which a buyer places an order, or for which price and terms of sale are negotiated, over the Internet, an extranet, an electronic data interchange (“EDI”) network (this is the leading method), e-mail or other online system. Payment needn't be made online for the transaction to count as e-commerce.
Perspective Points
U.S. retail e-commerce for all of 2009 was $141.3 billion ' up about 6% from the $132.4 billion 2008 total.
The Bureau calculated e-tail spending for the fourth quarter of 2009 at $38.1 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. That figure put fourth-quarter e-sales in 2009 4.2% beyond spending in the third quarter of that year.
As for same-quarter-to-same-quarter increases, fourth-quarter 2009 e-commerce revised figures showed an increase of 14% from the fourth quarter 2008 total, while total retail sales increased 2.1% in the same period.
Survey Description
The sample that the Census Bureau uses to estimate retail e-commerce sales is drawn from the same one used for the Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (“MRTS”) to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales, the Bureau notes. Estimates of advance retail sales are made from an MRTS sample subsample not large enough to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
The Census Bureau uses a “stratified simple random sampling method” to select about 12,500 firms whose retail sales are weighted and benchmarked so that they represent the nation's “complete universe” of two million retail firms.
The MRTS sample is probability-based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (“NAICS”), the Bureau says. All retailers ' whether or not engaged in e-commerce ' are covered.
The retail sector represents only a small portion of e-commerce transactions, which are by far made primarily in business-to-business markets.
Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers and ticket-sales agencies are not classified as retail, though, and are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates.
Non-employers are figured into the estimates by benchmarking those figures against prior annual survey estimates that include non-employer sales, based on administrative records. e-Commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The Census Bureau notes that the MRTS sample is updated regularly new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths and other changes to the retail business universe are accounted for. Firms report e-commerce sales separately each month. For each month of a quarter, non-responding sampling-unit data are imputed from responding sampling units in the same kind of business and sales size category. Responding firms represent about 81% of the e-commerce sales estimate, and about 75% of estimated U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
Monthly estimates for each quarter are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed), the Census Bureau explains. Monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Quarterly estimates are obtained by summing monthly benchmarked estimates. The figure for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate, subject to revision.
The full Thrid Quarter report is available at www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf.
Are Americans taking to heart the talk of politicians and some private-sector observers that the long-punishing economic and financial crisis that has put businesses into scrapbooks and people on the street is on the wane?
Or are people getting off their hurting feet and onto their thrifty notebook to find deals, and to spend online more than ever?
You can safely bet on all of that ' though economies are fickle and the uptick may not last long.
The Census Bureau said recently that preliminary estimated U.S. retail e-commerce sales shot up 4% from the second quarter, tallying $41.5 billion, with the data adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes.
That is the largest estimated e- commerce spending figure for retailing since the Bureau began keeping e-commerce spending records in 1999.
Taking the Proportional View
As a percent of all spending, e-commerce also hit a record-high estimated volume in the third quarter ' 4.2% (although readers should keep in mind that while the retailing sector isn't where most e-commerce occurs, it is the most-watched and most regularly reported-on sector and, thus, most likely the best indicator of general consumer-oriented activity than in the business-to-business world ' the main place e-commerce occurs).
And while the change in estimated third-quarter e-tailing in 2010 from 2009 (13.6%) is slightly lower than the Census Bureau's estimates for 2010's increases in first- and second-quarter sales over the same quarters in 2009, last year's quarterly e-spending trumped 2009's ' which ranged from a loss of 6.6% (-6.6%) to a gain of 1.6%.
Fourth-Quarters Comparison
The year-to-year fourth-quarter numbers hurled to 14.6% from -7.7% (that low figure in December 2008 represented the biggest decline in quarter-to-quarter e-commerce activity in history).
Total preliminary estimated third quarter retailing came in at $978.7 billion, also adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes ' which makes the third-quarter preliminary estimated adjusted spending figure the closest to $1 trillion since spending plummeted to $921.7 billion in the third quarter of 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis.
Estimated overall spending first hit $1 trillion in the third quarter of 2007, when the tally came to $1.01 trillion. More-than-a-trillion spending continued until the 2008 third-quarter drop.
Total retail sales increased 6% ('0.5%) from the third quarter of 2009 to the third quarter of last year.
The Numbers without Adjustments
On a not-adjusted basis, the estimate of U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the third quarter of 2010 totaled $38.8 billion, an increase of 3.9% ('1.4%) from the second quarter of 2010.
The third quarter 2010 e-commerce estimate increased 14.1% ('2.5%) from the third quarter of 2009, while total retail sales increased 5.8% ('0.5%) in the same period.
e-Commerce sales in the third quarter of 2010 accounted for 4% of total sales.
The Census Bureau will release its fourth-quarter 2010 estimate of e-commerce and total retail sales on Feb. 17.
How Census Bureau Defines e-Commerce
The Census Bureau classifies e-commerce sales as any involving goods and services for which a buyer places an order, or for which price and terms of sale are negotiated, over the Internet, an extranet, an electronic data interchange (“EDI”) network (this is the leading method), e-mail or other online system. Payment needn't be made online for the transaction to count as e-commerce.
Perspective Points
U.S. retail e-commerce for all of 2009 was $141.3 billion ' up about 6% from the $132.4 billion 2008 total.
The Bureau calculated e-tail spending for the fourth quarter of 2009 at $38.1 billion, adjusted for seasonal variation, but not for price changes. That figure put fourth-quarter e-sales in 2009 4.2% beyond spending in the third quarter of that year.
As for same-quarter-to-same-quarter increases, fourth-quarter 2009 e-commerce revised figures showed an increase of 14% from the fourth quarter 2008 total, while total retail sales increased 2.1% in the same period.
Survey Description
The sample that the Census Bureau uses to estimate retail e-commerce sales is drawn from the same one used for the Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (“MRTS”) to estimate preliminary and final U.S. retail sales, the Bureau notes. Estimates of advance retail sales are made from an MRTS sample subsample not large enough to measure changes in retail e-commerce sales.
The Census Bureau uses a “stratified simple random sampling method” to select about 12,500 firms whose retail sales are weighted and benchmarked so that they represent the nation's “complete universe” of two million retail firms.
The MRTS sample is probability-based and represents all employer firms engaged in retail activities as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (“NAICS”), the Bureau says. All retailers ' whether or not engaged in e-commerce ' are covered.
The retail sector represents only a small portion of e-commerce transactions, which are by far made primarily in business-to-business markets.
Online travel services, financial brokers and dealers and ticket-sales agencies are not classified as retail, though, and are not included in either the total retail or retail e-commerce sales estimates.
Non-employers are figured into the estimates by benchmarking those figures against prior annual survey estimates that include non-employer sales, based on administrative records. e-Commerce sales are included in the total monthly sales estimates.
The Census Bureau notes that the MRTS sample is updated regularly new retail employer businesses (including those selling via the Internet), business deaths and other changes to the retail business universe are accounted for. Firms report e-commerce sales separately each month. For each month of a quarter, non-responding sampling-unit data are imputed from responding sampling units in the same kind of business and sales size category. Responding firms represent about 81% of the e-commerce sales estimate, and about 75% of estimated U.S. retail sales for any quarter.
Monthly estimates for each quarter are obtained by summing weighted sales (either reported or imputed), the Census Bureau explains. Monthly estimates are benchmarked to prior annual survey estimates. Quarterly estimates are obtained by summing monthly benchmarked estimates. The figure for the most recent quarter is a preliminary estimate, subject to revision.
The full Thrid Quarter report is available at www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/pdf/ec_current.pdf.
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