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This Very Curious Real Estate Cycle

By Erika Morphy

This cycle is going just as expected … just pay no attention to the capital markets volatility and tech innovation lurking in the corner.

Every commercial real estate cycle is basically the same ' including that point, somewhere in the mid to end of the cycle, at which people become convinced that this one will be different for some specific reason. Maybe the reason is that a certain economic trend is not behaving as history or economic theory suggests it should, such as inflation or oil prices. Or maybe the reason is a new financial regulation that could limit capital market appetite for commerical real estate (CRE) debt, or a technological development that could undermine the usual ebb and flow of supply and demand. And so, we have arrived at that point in this cycle ' and not because of one of the aforementioned examples, but all of them.

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