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In the Marketplace

By ALM Staff | Law Journal Newsletters |
March 27, 2007

In a recent Financial Services Special Report by Fitch Ratings of New York, 'U.S. Finance & Leasing 2007 Outlook ' Tougher Sledding,' the rating company concluded that the outlook for 2007 is 'broadly Stable, however, stress points are beginning to emerge, most noticeably in the residential mortgage arena.' Although the scope of companies covered by the report is quite diverse, a few common themes were present. First, the credit cycle is becoming less benign, which could cause a rise in delinquencies and losses. This is already showing up in the subprime residential mortgage sector. Second, the report notes, capital management is becoming more aggressive, as leverage, on any measure, is increasing. Although issuers are managing capital more aggressively, the analysts did not see immediate rating repercussions as they felt issuers are more sophisticated in capital planning and are better able to tie together capital and credit risk. Third, the continued flat to inverted yield curve represents a major challenge to all lenders, which Fitch does not anticipate to normalize in the short-run, leaving finance and leasing companies to wrestle with this issue well into 2007.

Fitch further projects some level of mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures to occur, but with a greater emphasis on portfolio purchases, both foreign and domestic.

An emerging trend for finance and leasing companies is to enhance 'asset management' capabilities. 'This tendency became evident in companies that possess a variety of origination channels, but not necessarily the risk appetite or capital capacity for holding certain assets on-balance sheet. This has been made possible by advancements in capital markets, such as CDOs, as well as strong supply of liquidity, willing to invest in such assets. Nonetheless, Fitch will be monitoring the development of asset management businesses, particularly if liquidity becomes less available.' Ultimately, however, Fitch expects that commercial lenders and leasing companies will perform reasonably well in terms of credit quality, even with a modest weakening in the macroeconomy.

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