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Outlook for 2011

By Jeffrey R. Manning

While I am not generally in the “Nostradamus business,” write down the following: 2011 is going to be a tough and rough year for most of the middle market in the U.S. Although this year brings arguably the best business outlook since January 2007, because of credit market anomalies and fundamental structural economic challenges, the middle market ' i.e., those companies with sales under $1 billion ' will for the most part will be looking in from the outside of a year that is shaping up much better for larger corporate and multinational companies.

However, a number of positive economic indicators are driving good news in the business press. Chief among them: Equity markets have rebounded nicely over the past 18 months from the nadirs of March 2009, including the Dow and the S&P, in both large and small cap stocks. Likewise, U.S. manufacturing has seen genuinely encouraging signs of improvement, as the Purchasing Mangers Index (“PMI”) has scored a 50+ over the past 17 months, reflecting growth and expansion within the manufacturing sector. Since PMI monitors new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery, and inventories (per the Institute of Supply Management), it nicely reflects core manufacturing activities and sentiment.

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