Sentencing Stats Show That the Trial Penalty Is Substantially Overstated In the Vast Majority of White Collar Cases

The focus of this article is on the spectrum of white collar cases in which the lawyer believes there is a credible chance of winning based not only on an assessment of weaknesses in the government’s case but also of other factors such as loss of the opportunity to favorably litigate outcome-determinative evidentiary issues. Too often in these situations defense lawyers recommend a guilty plea in the mistaken belief that conviction at trial will result in a significant trial penalty far greater than a plea bargain sentence. By reviewing empirical sentencing data we hope to dispel this widely held, but ultimately mistaken view.